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    未來10年中國鋼鐵行業大有可為
    時間:2011/5/23 瀏覽次數:5749
     

    根據發達國家的工業化歷程分析、國內主要鋼鐵企業與世界鋼鐵企業對比,中國鋼鐵企業的贏利水平高出國際平均水平。因此,有理由相信在未來十年,中國鋼鐵行業大有可為。
     從美國、日本、英國、前蘇聯等國工業化的歷程分析,工業化過程需要大量的鋼鐵產品作為支撐。1901~2000年,美國的鋼材消費總量為71億噸、日本為38億噸、前蘇聯為56億噸,而中國同期僅為19億噸。將韓國(1970~1980年)、日本(1956~1970年)的重化工時期與中國相比,化工、冶金、能源、采掘等重化工行業的景氣周期具有持續性,粗鋼表觀消費量快速增長,但需要關注的是在重化工業長周期增長中亦有短期的回落。如日本在1958、1962、1965年的經濟增長率就曾下滑至5%~6%,而1965年山陽特殊鋼、山一證券等大企業接連倒閉或破產。
        中國目前處于重化工業時期,“世界制造中心”地位使一些大量消費鋼材的資金密集型產品(包括汽車、造船、電力設備、重型機械、精密機械等行業)制造能力向國內轉移,消費升級以及中國城市化進程的加快使房地產行業得到長期快速發展,而上述行業對鋼材的消費量占總消費量的85%左右。其中,房地產、汽車行業的增長路徑決定了鋼材的增長路徑。人均GDP與住房、汽車的需求關系是一條先凹后凸的曲線。因此,未來十年,房地產、汽車的消費仍將帶動鋼材需求量的快速增長。
        中國鋼鐵企業已具備相當的規模優勢、成本優勢和技術優勢。在2003年世界按產鋼量排名前100名鋼鐵公司中,中國有20家鋼鐵公司進入了產鋼量前100名,其中寶鋼、鞍鋼分別列第6名和第20名。2004年世界鋼動態公司(WSD)排名的世界級鋼鐵企業排行榜中全球大型鋼鐵公司共有22家,中國鋼鐵企業占4家。韓國浦項鋼鐵公司獲綜合評分8.17分,排國際競爭力第一位;中國寶山鋼鐵公司獲7.71分,列第三位;馬鋼、鞍鋼、江蘇沙鋼分別獲6.92分、6.88分和6.19分,依次列第六、第八和第十四位。
    因    此,有理由相信,一二十年后,中國部分鋼鐵公司將成為世界鋼鐵格局中的第一集團,寶鋼有可能成為“浦項第二”。
        國際經驗顯示,在重化工業時期和經濟高速發展期,鋼鐵股價均經歷大幅上漲:在美國上世紀三四十年代重化工業時期,出現過鋼鐵股熱。日本鋼鐵行業指數走勢經歷了1972年的高速上升。20世紀九十年代美國經濟高速增長、紐柯公司業績高速度增長(尤其在1992~1995年),紐柯股價飛速上升。
        從國際上贏利競爭能力最強的韓國浦項、成長性良好的美國紐柯、經歷經濟衰退的日本新日鐵與中國贏利能力較強的寶鋼、武鋼、鞍鋼進行比較后可以看出:寶鋼在2000年眾多新產能形成規模生產后,毛利率比浦項高出32%;武鋼的毛利率始終高于紐柯,2002年后超過新日鐵,且整體上市后的武鋼毛利率將會提高到26%左右的水平(2004年);鞍鋼的毛利率水平整體好于紐柯,與新日鐵基本不相上下。

    上一篇: 鋼鐵建材等產能增幅回落二季度經濟放緩已定
    下一篇: 2008中國鋼鐵工業科技論壇 5月12-14日在杭州隆重召開
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